Highest temperature in Seoul on June 27?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport on 27 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the specified range, while a NO share wins if it does not. Currently, the crowd assigns a 0% probability to the YES outcome, implying traders believe the temperature will not reach the target threshold.

Historical data frames this low probability clearly. Seoul’s typical June highs range between 18°C and 27°C, with late June often becoming hotter and more humid as the monsoon season approaches [1][3]. However, record-breaking heat has occurred; Seoul recently hit 35.6°C on 25 June, the highest June temperature since 1958, and South Korea set an all-time record of 41.0°C in Hongcheon [5][8]. Despite these extremes, the current 0% pricing suggests traders expect conditions closer to the average rather than another record day.

Traders should monitor daily weather forecasts released each morning, as humidity and rainfall can shift temperatures rapidly [1]. Key catalysts include announcements from the Korea Meteorological Administration regarding monsoon onset and any emerging heatwave warnings, which could alter settlement expectations [3]. With the settlement window ending on 27 June 2026 at 12:00 UTC, real-time data from Wunderground will be the definitive resolution source, making immediate forecast updates critical for assessing risk.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 27? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.