Highest temperature in Seoul on June 29?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 29 June 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. A YES share in this prediction market means you believe the temperature will fall within the specific range defined by the market organisers; a NO share means you expect it to fall outside that range. Currently, the crowd implies a 24% probability that the temperature will hit the YES range, suggesting traders see the outcome as unlikely but not impossible.

Historical data frames this low probability against a backdrop of accelerating heat. The three hottest summers in Korea—1994, 2018, and 2024—each broke the record of the previous one, with the World Meteorological Organisation flagging South Korea as having experienced its hottest summer on record in 2024[1]. Seoul itself soared to 39.6°C in August 2018, smashing its previous record[2], while Hongcheon recently hit an all-time national high of 41.0°C[4]. Despite this trend, June 2025 saw Seoul peak at only 35.8°C, indicating that extreme summer highs often arrive later in the season rather than in early June[3].

Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily heatwave forecasts and any official announcements regarding regional cooling schedules, as these directly influence temperature spikes. Recent reports confirm South Korea experienced record-breaking June heat in 59 cities on 30 June 2025, the hottest June day since records began in 1904, suggesting that early summer extremes are becoming more frequent[9]. However, with settlement ending at 12:00 UTC on 29 June, the market relies on a narrow window of morning data, making the timing of any forecast updates critical for price movement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 29? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.