Highest temperature in Seoul on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 30 June 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius and verified by Wunderground. In prediction markets, a YES share means you believe the temperature will fall within a specific range defined by the market, while a NO share means you believe it will not. Here, the crowd currently implies a 0% chance of YES, suggesting traders overwhelmingly expect the temperature to stay outside the targeted range—likely because historical data points to typical June highs well below extreme thresholds.

Historically, Seoul’s June highs average between 25°C and 29°C (77°F–81°F), rarely exceeding 31°C (87°F), according to long-term climate records[1]. Even during South Korea’s hottest June ever in 2025, which saw 59 cities record breaking heat, the peak in Seoul remained within this band[6]. The nation’s all-time record of 41°C was set in Hongcheon, far from Incheon, and no June day in Seoul has approached such extremes since modern records began in 1904[2][6]. This stability frames the current 0% probability as grounded in decades of consistent weather patterns.

Traders should monitor daily weather bulletins from the Korea Meteorological Administration and Wunderground updates for Incheon on 30 June, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind could alter the peak temperature[3]. While no major announcements are scheduled, the dependency on real-time sensor data means any technical glitch or delay in reporting could affect resolution clarity. Recent news confirms South Korea is experiencing a warming trend, with June 2025 marking the hottest average since 1973, but this has not yet pushed Seoul beyond its historical ceiling[4][8]. The market’s outcome hinges entirely on this single day’s verified reading, making timely data access critical.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 30? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.