Highest temperature in Seoul on June 5?

Market context

On 5 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport's weather station will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market pays out if the actual temperature matches your chosen range; a NO share pays out if it falls outside that range. The settlement source is Weather Underground's historical data for that specific date and location, which records hourly observations throughout the day and identifies the daily maximum.

Seoul's June climate typically sees daytime highs between 24–28°C, with occasional peaks above 30°C during early heat waves. Historical data from Incheon station shows June temperatures rarely exceed 32°C, though the 2018 and 2019 summers brought several days above 30°C in early June. The current 0% crowd probability on the highest ranges suggests traders expect a typical early-summer day rather than an anomalous heat event. Comparable years provide a baseline: June 2023 saw highs of 26–29°C in the first week, whilst June 2022 peaked at 27–30°C.

The primary catalyst affecting June 2026 temperatures will be the position and intensity of the North Pacific high-pressure system, which typically strengthens through early summer. Tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific could also influence moisture and cloud cover, altering daytime heating. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration in May 2026, which typically issue 10–30 day outlooks. Local factors including urban heat island effects at Incheon may push recorded temperatures 1–2°C higher than surrounding rural areas.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul on June 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.