Highest temperature in Seoul on June 7?

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Market context

On 7 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. This market asks traders to predict which bracket that daily maximum will occupy, measured in degrees Celsius. A YES share means you believe the temperature will land in a specific range; a NO share means you believe it will fall outside that range. The settlement will draw from historical weather data logged at the airport's official monitoring station, accessible through Weather Underground's historical records.

Seoul's early June climate typically sits in the warm-to-hot range, with daily highs averaging 24–27°C during this period. Historical data from the past decade shows considerable variability: some years have seen peaks near 30°C during heat waves, whilst cooler patterns have kept maxima closer to 22°C. The current crowd probability of 0% for the YES outcome suggests traders are either uncertain about which specific temperature band the market is offering, or that particular range is considered statistically unlikely given seasonal norms. Comparing this year's spring progression—warmer or cooler than average—will inform whether June 7 follows typical patterns or deviates significantly.

The key variable affecting this forecast is the position of high-pressure systems and any early-season weather fronts moving across the Korean peninsula in early June. Meteorological agencies including the Korea Meteorological Administration issue extended forecasts around late May that typically carry reasonable skill for temperature ranges five to seven days ahead. Traders should monitor those official outlooks as the settlement window approaches, alongside any unusual atmospheric patterns reported in regional weather discussions during late May and early June.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 7? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.