Highest temperature in Seoul on June 8?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 8 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. This market invites traders to predict which bracket that daily maximum will occupy, measured in degrees Celsius. A YES share represents a bet that the temperature will land within a specific range; a NO share bets it will fall outside that range. The settlement hinges on historical weather data published by Weather Underground, making the outcome verifiable and independent of forecaster opinion.

Seoul's early June climate typically sits in the warm-to-hot band. Historical records from Incheon Airport show daily highs in early June averaging around 24–26°C, though variability is substantial depending on whether monsoon systems approach the Korean peninsula. The current crowd probability of 0% for the YES position suggests traders are either heavily concentrated on alternative temperature brackets or awaiting clearer seasonal signals before committing capital. This extreme skew warrants scrutiny: it may reflect genuine consensus about which range is most likely, or it may signal insufficient liquidity and participation in this particular outcome.

The primary catalyst affecting June 8th's temperature will be the position and strength of the Pacific high-pressure system relative to the East Asian monsoon trough. Meteorological forecasts become reliable roughly 7–10 days before the event, meaning traders should monitor updates from the Korea Meteorological Administration and international weather models from early June onwards. Any shift in the anticipated monsoon onset date or intensity could materially alter temperature expectations for that specific day.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.