Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. A YES share means you believe the temperature will fall within the specific range defined by the market; a NO share means you believe it will not. Currently, the crowd-implied probability for YES is 0%, suggesting most traders expect the temperature to be outside the target range. This low probability is not unusual when considering historical patterns: July is Shanghai’s hottest month, with average highs around 31°C (87°F) and frequent peaks exceeding 35°C (95°F) during sunny spells[2][8]. Such consistent warmth makes it statistically unlikely for the temperature to land in a narrow, cooler band unless an unusual weather anomaly occurs.

Traders should monitor short-term forecasts and any official announcements regarding heatwaves or monsoon activity, as these directly influence peak temperatures. AccuWeather’s July 2026 forecast for Shanghai predicts daily highs between 26°C and 36°C (79°F–96°F), with an average high of 32°C (89°F)[9]. A sudden shift in wind patterns or cloud cover could suppress temperatures, but such events are rare in midsummer. The resolution source is Wunderground, which will publish the day’s highest recorded temperature at the airport station[6]. No major scheduled events or policy changes are expected to alter weather conditions, so the primary catalyst remains natural atmospheric variability. Understanding these dependencies helps assess whether the 0% probability reflects genuine certainty or merely market hesitation.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.