Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the specific range the market defines, while a NO share pays out if it falls outside that range. Here, the crowd currently implies a 0% chance of YES, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not hit the target range, despite July being Shanghai’s hottest month with average highs of 87°F (30.6°C) and frequent peaks exceeding 35°C (95°F) [3][5].

Historical data frames this probability: Shanghai regularly sees July highs between 86°F and 97°F (30°C–36°C), with an all-time record of 105°F (40.6°C) recorded on 26 July [2][10]. The current 0% YES probability appears unusually low given that temperatures on 10 July have historically reached 97°F (36.1°C) in recent years, and the 2026 forecast predicts highs up to 97°F [2][4]. Traders should watch for sudden shifts in the forecast, particularly announcements of heatwaves or changes in monsoon patterns, as these are the primary catalysts that could push temperatures into the target range. A recent heatwave moving into Shanghai, as reported by WLKY, underscores the volatility of summer temperatures in the region [10].

Dependencies include the official resolution source, Wunderground, which will log the highest temperature for all times on 10 July at the Pudong station [market description]. Traders must monitor real-time updates from Wunderground and local meteorological services, as a single hour of extreme heat could resolve the market. With the settlement window ending on 12 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC, the market remains sensitive to any late-breaking weather data that contradicts the current 0% implied probability [market description].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.