Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the peak temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 12 July 2026. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the highest temperature falls within the specific range the market defines, while a NO share pays out if it falls outside that range. Here, the crowd currently implies a 0% chance of YES, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not reach the threshold set for a winning outcome.

Historical July data for Shanghai shows daily highs typically range between 30°C and 35°C, often exceeding 35°C on hotter days [5][8]. Average highs at Pudong Airport climb to 88°F (roughly 31°C) in July, rarely exceeding 95°F (35°C) [1][3]. However, extreme heat events are possible; in July 2025, temperatures peaked at 38°C (100°F) [8]. The current 0% probability likely reflects traders expecting typical summer conditions rather than an extreme spike, though one day of anomalous heat could still shift outcomes.

Traders should monitor hourly forecasts from sources like Yr and AccuWeather, which currently show Sunday 12 July as partly cloudy with light rain in the morning and fair conditions in the afternoon, with a maximum of 31°C [9][10]. The key catalyst is whether local thunderstorms or heavy cloud cover suppress the peak temperature below the market’s threshold. With a 60% chance of precipitation earlier in the day and UV indices climbing to 11, the interplay between rain and intense solar radiation will determine the final reading [6]. Settlement depends entirely on Wunderground’s recorded high for ZSPD at the end of the day.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.