Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the specific range the market targets, while a NO share pays out if it does not; currently, the crowd assigns 0% probability to the YES outcome, implying they believe the temperature will not hit that range.

Historical data for Shanghai in July shows daily highs typically rising from 84°F to 88°F (29°C to 31°C), rarely exceeding 95°F (35°C) even during the most sunny weather [1][5]. The current 0% probability suggests the market expects conditions to stay within these standard bounds rather than spike into an extreme outlier, as summer highs regularly exceed 30°C but seldom breach the 35°C threshold unless a significant heatwave occurs [5].

Traders should monitor hourly forecasts for cloud cover and wind shifts, as broken clouds or gusty winds can suppress peak temperatures below extreme levels [2]. With precipitation probabilities around 30% and a mix of sun and clouds expected, the immediate catalyst is whether the afternoon sun breaks through to push temperatures toward the 33°C mark seen in recent forecasts [4][9]. The settlement relies strictly on Wunderground’s recorded maximum for ZSPD, so any discrepancy between forecast models and the official station reading will determine the final outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.