Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 July 2026, Shanghai will record a daily high temperature, and this market asks traders to predict which temperature band that figure will fall into. A YES share pays out if the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station matches the specified range; a NO share pays out if it falls outside that range. The settlement source is Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific station, making the outcome objective and verifiable once the day concludes.

Shanghai's July climate is consistently hot and humid, with average daily highs around 32–33°C. Historical data from the past decade shows July 14th temperatures typically range between 29°C and 36°C, though extremes have occasionally pushed toward 38°C during particularly intense heat waves. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the YES outcome suggests traders are either awaiting clarification on which temperature band the market is asking about, or the specified range sits outside the plausible envelope for that date. Without visibility on the exact temperature threshold being tested, the market lacks sufficient information for meaningful price discovery.

Traders monitoring this market should track China's meteorological forecasts as mid-July 2026 approaches. The East Asian summer monsoon pattern and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific could shift Shanghai's weather significantly in the weeks before settlement. Real-time updates from the China Meteorological Administration and seasonal climate outlooks will provide the most reliable signals for adjusting positions closer to the resolution date.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 14? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.