Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the peak heat recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 15 July 2026. In prediction markets, a YES share wins if the highest temperature falls within the specific range the trader selected, while a NO share wins if it falls outside that range. Here, the crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to the YES outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not reach the threshold implied by the market’s resolution criteria.

Historically, mid-July in Shanghai is one of the hottest periods, with temperatures at Pudong often climbing between 32°C and 36°C. For instance, recent years have seen daily maxima of 35°C or higher during this window, making a 0% YES probability unusual unless the market’s range is set far above typical highs. This discrepancy may reflect either an exceptionally high threshold or a lack of confidence in the forecast due to the medium predictability noted in current weather models[3].

Traders should monitor daily updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as the day progresses toward the 12:00 UTC settlement deadline. While no specific announcements are scheduled for 15 July, sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns—such as the broken clouds and 17kt winds reported this morning[2]—could alter the peak temperature. Current forecasts show a maximum of 35°C today[2], which aligns with historical norms but may not satisfy the market’s range if it is set higher.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.