Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. A YES share in this prediction market means you believe the day’s peak temperature will fall within the specific range the market is betting on; a NO share means you believe it will not. Currently, the crowd implies a 0% chance of YES, suggesting traders are confident the temperature will not match the offered range, though this reflects collective sentiment rather than a guaranteed forecast.

Historical data for mid-July in Shanghai shows peak temperatures typically range between 32°C and 38°C, with 2024 and 2025 both recording highs near 37°C at Pudong during similar periods [3]. The current 0% probability may stem from the market offering a range that is either too low or too high compared to these established norms, rather than an expectation of unusually cool weather. Traders should treat this as a signal to scrutinise the exact range offered, as extreme deviations from the 32–38°C band are rare in this season.

Key catalysts include real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, which will publish the day’s final high once the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC [1]. While no specific weather announcements are scheduled, traders should monitor live readings from AccuWeather and The Weather Network for any sudden shifts in humidity or cloud cover that could suppress temperatures below 32°C [1][2]. With 80% probability of rain today and scattered thunderstorms reported, there is a plausible mechanism for cooler conditions, though historical patterns suggest highs will likely remain within the typical summer band.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 17? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.