Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 2 July 2026, the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station will record its highest daytime temperature in degrees Celsius, a real-world event that determines whether a YES share resolves true. A YES share pays out if the temperature lands in the specified range; a NO share pays out if it does not. In this market, the crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to the YES outcome, implying near-certainty that the temperature will not match the target range.

Historical data frames this low probability: July in Shanghai is consistently hot, with average highs between 26–31°C and peaks often reaching 35°C or more, as seen in July 2025 when temperatures hit 38°C[2][7]. Given that the target range likely sits far below these typical highs, the 0% YES probability aligns with decades of weather patterns showing July as one of the hottest months in the region[2].

Traders should monitor daily weather forecasts from Wunderground and the National Weather Service for ZSPD, which provide real-time temperature trends leading into 2 July[3]. While no specific announcements are expected, sudden shifts in monsoon activity or cloud cover could influence peak temperatures, though such deviations rarely drop highs below 26°C in mid-summer[2][6]. The settlement relies solely on Wunderground’s recorded maximum for the day, making it the definitive source for resolution[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.