Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 3 July 2026, the real-world event at Shanghai Pudong International Airport will be the recording of the day’s highest air temperature in degrees Celsius, which will determine whether a YES share resolves as true. A YES share represents a bet that the highest temperature falls within a specific range defined by the market, while a NO share bets it does not; in this case, the crowd currently implies a 0% chance of YES, suggesting traders expect the temperature to stay outside the target band. This market settles based on data from Wunderground for the highest temperature recorded at any time on that day at the Pudong station.

Historically, July is Shanghai’s hottest month, with average highs near 37°C (87°F) and summer peaks regularly exceeding 30°C, often reaching 35°C under sunny conditions[2][5]. Current local readings show temperatures around 26–28°C with high humidity, but morning thunderstorms are forecast, which could temporarily suppress peak heat[1][7]. Given this pattern, the 0% YES probability likely reflects expectations that the target range is either too high or too low compared to typical July extremes, making historical data a crucial anchor for interpreting the market’s stance.

Traders should monitor official weather announcements from China’s National Meteorological Centre and Wunderground updates, particularly any shifts in cloud cover or storm intensity that could alter peak temperatures[3]. Recent forecasts from AccuWeather indicate a morning thunderstorm followed by cloudy skies, a key dependency that may cap the day’s maximum heat[7]. No major policy changes or scheduled events are expected to influence local weather, so the primary catalyst remains the evolving atmospheric conditions on 3 July, with real-time data from Wunderground serving as the definitive resolution source.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 3? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.