Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the peak heat recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 4 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share wins if the highest temperature falls within a specific range you select, while a NO share wins if it falls outside that range. Here, the crowd currently assigns a 0% chance to the temperature being 32°C or below, implying traders expect the heat to exceed that threshold.

Historical data frames this expectation clearly: July is Shanghai’s hottest month, with average highs near 87°F (30.6°C) and summer peaks regularly exceeding 35°C (95°F) during sunny spells [3][5]. Current forecasts for July 2026 show daily highs ranging from 80° to 93°F (26.7°C to 33.9°C), supporting the market’s frontrunner outcome of 32°C at 34% probability [1][6]. This aligns with the 0% YES probability for cooler ranges, as past records confirm temperatures often breach 30°C in early July [5].

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, and watch for shifts in cloud cover or convection that could suppress peak heat [1]. The National Weather Service provides live METAR data for ZSPD, which may signal sudden changes in humidity or wind affecting temperature [4]. While no major announcements are scheduled, the 11% cloud cover noted in recent hourly reports suggests potential variability that could alter the day’s maximum [7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.