Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is the highest temperature recorded on 5 July 2026 at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the observed temperature falls within the specific range you selected, while a NO share pays out if it falls outside that range. Here, the crowd currently assigns 0% probability to the YES outcome for the chosen range, implying traders believe the temperature will not land in that bracket.

Historical data frames how to interpret this near-zero probability. July is Shanghai’s hottest month, with average highs around 30°C (87°F), rarely dipping below 24°C (75°F) or exceeding 35°C (95°F) [1][2]. Summer highs regularly surpass 30°C, reaching 35°C during the most sunny spells [4]. Given that 2026 is already China’s hottest summer in 60 years, with meteorological data confirming record-breaking warmth from early summer through Major Heat [9], the likelihood of temperatures staying in a lower range appears minimal.

Traders should monitor daily weather forecasts and severe thunderstorm announcements, which can temporarily suppress peak temperatures. AccuWeather’s 10-day forecast for Pudong shows today (5 July) as cloudy and humid with a possible afternoon thunderstorm, followed by hotter days ahead [6]. Severe thunderstorm clusters are also expected to impact the region, potentially altering temperature peaks [3]. Since the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 5 July, any sudden weather shifts before that time could decisively influence the final reading.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.