Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 8 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the specified range, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the crowd implies a 0% chance of YES, suggesting traders expect the temperature to miss the target range entirely. This setup hinges on a single data point from Wunderground, making the outcome binary and dependent on precise meteorological conditions.

Historical patterns for Shanghai in July show daily highs typically rising from 84°F to 88°F, rarely dropping below 75°F or exceeding 95°F, with summer highs regularly surpassing 30°C and often reaching 35°C during sunny spells [1][5]. Recent days confirm this trend, with maximum temperatures hitting 34°C on 6 July and 33°C on 7 July, indicating the city is already in a hot, humid phase [2]. The 0% YES probability likely reflects a mismatch between the market’s range and these consistent high temperatures, as July averages hover above 30°C and frequently exceed 35°C [8].

Traders should monitor immediate weather forecasts for 8 July, particularly the BBC’s prediction of light rain and a high of 34°C, which could influence the final reading [4]. Key catalysts include shifts in wind speed, cloud cover, and precipitation, as scattered clouds and east-south-easterly winds at 6 mph may moderate temperatures slightly [2]. While early July precipitation remains possible, the dominant factor is sustained solar energy, which is gradually increasing through the month and could push temperatures toward the upper 35°C threshold [1]. No official announcements are expected, so real-time data from Wunderground will be the sole determinant.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.