Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 13?

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Market context

On 13 June 2026, Shanghai's highest recorded temperature will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market pays out if the settlement range you've chosen matches the actual peak temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport that day. A NO share pays out if your chosen range does not match. The settlement source—Weather Underground's historical data for that specific station—is fixed and publicly accessible, removing ambiguity about which reading counts.

Shanghai's June climate is characterised by warm, humid conditions as the city transitions into summer. Historical data shows that mid-June temperatures at Pudong typically peak between 28°C and 32°C, though extremes outside this band occur irregularly. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about which specific range will resolve, or the market has attracted limited participation thus far. Comparable weather markets for major cities show that seasonal norms—supported by decades of meteorological records—tend to anchor trader expectations more reliably than day-to-day forecasts, particularly when settlement is months away.

The key variable is whether June 2026 experiences anomalous heat or cooler-than-average conditions. China's meteorological authority issues seasonal outlooks in spring, typically around April or May, which can shift trader positioning if they signal an unusually warm or cool summer ahead. El Niño or La Niña patterns, which influence East Asian weather systems, will be established well before June and are trackable through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's climate indices. Local air quality events and urban heat-island effects specific to Shanghai may also influence the final reading, though these are difficult to predict months in advance.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.