Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 20?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event here is the **highest air temperature measured at Shanghai Pudong International Airport on 20 June 2026**, with the market resolving by which Celsius band that reading falls into. In prediction-market terms, a **YES** share pays out if the final measured temperature lands in the specified range, while a **NO** share pays out if it does not; because the settlement source is Wunderground’s daily history page for ZSPD, traders should care about the airport station reading rather than a citywide average or a separate forecast. [2]

For context, June in Shanghai is normally warm and becoming hotter through the month. WeatherSpark puts average daily highs at Shanghai Pudong International Airport around the upper 20s Celsius in June, with values rising from roughly 25°C early in the month to about 28°C by late June; other climate guides describe June as the start of the summer heat, with average highs around 27–28°C. That means outcomes around the high 20s are structurally plausible, while very cool readings are uncommon. [1][7][8]

The main things a trader should watch are the short-term forecast trend, cloud cover, rain, and sea-breeze effects at the airport, because these can move the daily maximum by a degree or two even when the broader seasonal pattern is stable. Market pricing is also easy to misread at first: an implied 0% YES does not mean the event is impossible, only that traders currently assign negligible odds to the target range; given that this market resolves on a single station reading, a late shift in forecasted heat or showers can matter more than the month-long average.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 20? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.