Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 21?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The outcome turns on the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport before the settlement window closes, not on how hot the city feels in general. In a prediction market, a **YES** share pays if the event happens as specified and a **NO** share pays if it does not; here, traders are effectively judging which Celsius band the day’s peak at ZSPD will land in, using Wunderground’s station history as the reference point.

For context, June in Shanghai Airport is usually warm rather than extreme. WeatherSpark says average daily highs there rise through the month to around 83°F, with typical June highs rarely below 69°F or above 92°F, while World Weather Online puts Shanghai’s June averages in the 22°C to 28°C range and notes the city’s plum-rain season, which often brings cloud and showers.[1][4] That makes a very low implied chance for the highest-temperature band unusual on historical grounds, unless the market is tied to a relatively high threshold or traders expect a cool, unsettled day.

The main things to watch are the latest airport forecast, any afternoon thunderstorm risk, and whether sunshine breaks through long enough to lift the day’s maximum. Current short-range forecasts for Shanghai Pudong International Airport point to overcast or partly cloudy conditions, with temperatures around 81°F to 82°F and a stated possibility of local thunderstorms, which can cap the daytime high if rain arrives early.[2][3] Because settlement depends on the single highest reading at the station, the relevant catalyst is not the evening cooling trend but the timing of any warm-up or storm passage during the day.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

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Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.