Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 27?

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Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the highest temperature recorded on 27 June 2026 at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the specific range defined by the market, while a NO share pays out if it falls outside that range. Here, the crowd-implied probability of YES is 0%, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not match the market’s target range, likely because historical data places June highs between 25°C and 30°C (77°F to 86°F), rarely exceeding 33°C (92°F)[1][3].

Historical patterns show that Shanghai’s June temperatures steadily climb, with daily highs increasing by roughly 7°F throughout the month, rarely dipping below 25°C or surpassing 33°C[1]. This consistent range frames the current 0% probability as a rational assessment that the market’s target range is misaligned with typical conditions. Traders should monitor official weather announcements from the China Meteorological Administration and real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, for any sudden shifts caused by heatwaves or unusual atmospheric pressure systems[3]. Recent forecasts for late June 2026 predict highs of 29°C to 30°C with sunny conditions and light winds, reinforcing the likelihood that the temperature will stay within the common historical band rather than hitting an outlier range[2][5].

No extreme weather events have been announced for Shanghai this week, and the stable wind speeds and gradual decrease in solar energy during June further suggest predictable thermal behaviour[1]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 27 June 2026, meaning traders must act before this deadline if they wish to adjust positions based on the day’s final temperature reading. Facts indicate that without a documented heatwave, the temperature will likely remain within the 25°C–30°C band, making the 0% YES probability a reflection of this statistical certainty rather than market error.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.