Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 29?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 29 June 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share wins if the temperature falls within the specific range the market targets, while a NO share wins if it falls outside that range. Currently, the crowd-implied probability for YES is 0%, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not hit the target range. This low probability aligns with historical patterns where June highs at this station typically range between 26°C and 30°C, rarely exceeding 35°C even on the most sunny days[1][5].

To read this probability correctly, traders should compare current conditions against comparable cases from recent years, where daily highs in June increased by roughly 7°F from 77°F to 83°F, rarely falling below 69°F or exceeding 92°F[1]. The key catalysts to watch are the immediate weather schedules, particularly the forecast for light rain and a gentle breeze expected on 29 June, which would suppress peak temperatures significantly[2]. A trader must monitor the Wunderground data release for the day, as the resolution depends entirely on the highest temperature recorded for all times on 29 June, and any sudden shift to thundery weather could alter the outcome[2][6]. Recent forecasts indicate a 25% risk of thunderstorms on this date, which would likely keep temperatures near 24°C rather than reaching higher ranges[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 29? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.