Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 30 June 2026, the real-world event at Shanghai Pudong International Airport will be the recording of the day’s highest air temperature in degrees Celsius, a single data point that determines whether a YES or NO share settles. A YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the market’s defined range, while a NO share pays out if it does not; both are simply bets on an outcome, with no obligation to act beyond holding the share until the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 30 June 2026.

Historically, June in Shanghai sees daily highs climb from 77°F to 83°F (25°C to 28°C), rarely dipping below 69°F (21°C) or exceeding 92°F (33°C), with summer peaks regularly surpassing 30°C (86°F) and reaching 35°C (95°F) under intense sun [1][5]. The current crowd-implied probability of 32% YES suggests traders believe the temperature will likely stay near the lower end of this range, consistent with the gradual decrease in shortwave solar energy observed through June, which falls from 6.0 kWh to 5.1 kWh [1].

Traders should monitor the BBC Weather forecast for Tuesday 30 June, which predicts a high of 27°C (80°F) with 84% humidity and east-southeasterly winds at 6 mph, as these conditions may suppress peak temperatures [2]. No major weather announcements are scheduled, but the dependency on Wunderground’s official daily record means any discrepancy between forecast models and the final logged value could shift outcomes, making the 27°C forecast a critical anchor for reading the 32% probability [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 30? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.