Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. A YES share in this prediction market means you believe the temperature will fall within a specific range (for example, 33°C or above), while a NO share means you expect it to stay below that threshold. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders overwhelmingly doubt the temperature will reach the highest range being offered, likely because historical data shows July highs in Shenzhen typically peak around 33–34°C, not significantly higher[1].

Historical climate records confirm that July is Shenzhen’s hottest month, with an average high of 89°F (approximately 32°C) and occasional peaks reaching 33–34°C[1]. Recent Polymarket data for the same date shows 33°C as the leading outcome at 41%, followed by 34°C at 23%, reinforcing that extreme highs above 35°C are considered improbable[2]. This aligns with the 0% YES probability, as the market expects temperatures to stay within the common summer range rather than breach it. Traders should monitor daily weather forecasts for thunderstorms or cloud cover, which can suppress peak temperatures, as seen in today’s forecast predicting morning thunderstorms and a high of 91°F (33°C)[5]. Any sudden shifts in regional weather patterns, such as increased humidity or unexpected heatwaves, would be critical catalysts to watch, though current conditions suggest stability[9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.