Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 16 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share wins if the day’s peak heat falls within the specified range, while a NO share wins if it does not. Here, the crowd currently assigns a 0% probability to the YES outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not reach the market’s threshold.

Historical data for mid-July in Shenzhen shows consistent high heat, with typical daily peaks between 32°C and 35°C at the airport station. In 2023 and 2024, temperatures on 16 July reached 34.2°C and 33.8°C respectively, well within the usual summer band [1]. The current 0% YES probability is therefore unusual, as it implies an expectation of significantly cooler conditions than the norm, which contradicts recent comparable cases.

Traders should monitor the hourly forecast updates from AccuWeather and Wunderground, the official resolution source, for any sudden shifts in cloud cover, precipitation, or wind patterns that could suppress temperatures. A 68% chance of rain and a RealFeel® of 85°F (30°C) in the current hour may indicate cooling trends, but these are short-term indicators [1]. No official weather announcements are scheduled before the settlement window ends on 16 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC, so reliance remains on real-time station data.

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 16? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.