Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 6 July 2026, the real-world event at stake is the peak temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved via Wunderground data. In prediction markets, a YES share means you bet the outcome will occur (here, that the temperature hits a specific range), while a NO share means you bet it will not. This market currently shows a 0% crowd-implied probability for YES, suggesting traders overwhelmingly doubt the temperature will reach the implied threshold—likely 32°C or higher.

Historically, July is Shenzhen’s hottest month, with average highs near 32°C and frequent peaks between 33°C and 35°C, as noted in climate records from Travel China Guide and Weather Spark[1][4]. Yet, recent years show variability: a 2023 heatwave in South China saw temperatures reach 37–39°C in some areas, though Shenzhen itself typically stays below 35°C[6]. A similar Polymarket event on 5 July 2026 resolved to “No” for 31°C, reinforcing that even modest thresholds can be uncertain[2]. These cases frame the current 0% probability as plausible but not guaranteed.

Traders should monitor daily weather forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and Wunderground updates, especially for typhoon activity or subtropical high pressure shifts that could suppress or spike temperatures[1]. No major announcements are scheduled, but sudden heavy showers—common in July with 17 rainy days and 340mm rainfall—could lower peak readings[1]. Watch for real-time Wunderground data as the settlement window closes on 6 July at 12:00 UTC, since cloud cover or rain could alter the outcome unexpectedly.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.