Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 7 July 2026, the real-world event at stake is the highest air temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao’an International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Wunderground. In prediction markets, a YES share bets that the temperature will fall within a specific range defined by the market, while a NO share bets it will not. This particular market currently shows a 0% crowd-implied probability for YES, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not hit the target range, though the settlement window only closes on 7 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Historical data frames this low probability: July is Shenzhen’s hottest month, with average highs near 32°C (89°F) and peaks reaching 35°C in recent years[3][7]. Yet, the current 0% YES probability implies the market expects temperatures to stay below the threshold, possibly due to recent forecasts showing maxes of 31–32°C[5][6]. Comparable cases from 2024–2025 show similar summer highs, but no extreme spikes above 36°C, supporting the cautious stance[2].

Traders should monitor daily weather updates from Wunderground and local meteorological announcements, as sudden shifts in humidity or typhoon activity could alter temperatures[9]. Recent forecasts indicate light winds and clear skies, with no precipitation expected tonight, keeping conditions stable[9]. Any official updates from China’s National Meteorological Centre regarding heatwaves or storm systems would be critical catalysts, as these directly influence the airport’s recorded temperature[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 7? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.