Highest temperature in Shenzhen on July 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 8 July 2026, the real-world event at the centre of this market is the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport, measured in degrees Celsius and verified by Wunderground. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the specified range (here, 31°C), while a NO share pays out if it does not. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for YES suggests traders believe 31°C will not be the peak, despite climatology pointing elsewhere.

Historical data frames this probability sharply: July is Shenzhen’s hottest month, with an average high of 89°F (31.7°C) at the airport, making 31°C a below-normal outcome rather than an anomaly [4][5]. Recent markets show similar tension; on 6 July, trader consensus clustered tightly around 30–31°C, with 29°C already confirmed as the peak for that day [1]. This pattern indicates that while 31°C is climatologically typical, short-term variability—such as the mostly cloudy conditions forecast for 8 July with temperatures near 88°F—may suppress the peak below the threshold [6].

Traders should monitor daily weather updates from the National Weather Service and Wunderground, as cloud cover and rain periods can significantly lower maximum temperatures [3][6]. The forecast for 8 July notes mostly cloudy skies with periods of rain overnight, which could keep highs below 31°C, while 9 July promises morning thunderstorms that may further disrupt heat accumulation [6]. No major policy announcements or schedules are expected to influence temperature directly, so the primary dependency remains on real-time meteorological data. The settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC on 8 July, meaning only data up to that point will resolve the market.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

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FAQ

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Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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