Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 11 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market represents a bet that the day's peak temperature lands within a specific bracket—say, 32–34 °C—whilst a NO share bets it lands elsewhere. The settlement hinges on historical data from Weather Underground, which archives hourly readings from the airport's official station. This mechanism removes ambiguity: there is one correct answer, determined by a third-party weather archive, not opinion.

Shenzhen's June climate is consistently warm and humid, with average highs near 31 °C and frequent afternoon thunderstorms. Historical records from the past decade show June 11th temperatures typically ranging between 28 and 35 °C, with occasional spikes above 36 °C during heatwave conditions. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently see no meaningful chance of an extreme outcome—either the market's YES range sits at an implausibly high threshold, or the crowd expects typical seasonal conditions. Comparable June days at Bao'an rarely exceed 37 °C unless a heat dome moves inland from the South China Sea.

The key variable is whether tropical weather systems or monsoon activity will influence the region in early June 2026. The Western Pacific typhoon season officially begins 1 May, though systems rarely reach Shenzhen's latitude before July. Traders should monitor meteorological forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and track upper-air patterns in late May; any early-season tropical depression could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and rainfall, whilst a high-pressure ridge would favour heat accumulation.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 11? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.