Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 7?

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Market context

On 7 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market represents a bet that the temperature will land within a specific bracket—say, 32–34°C—whilst a NO share bets it will fall outside that range. The settlement hinges on historical weather data from Wunderground, which archives daily temperature extremes at this major airport station in southern China. Traders are essentially forecasting which temperature band will contain that day's peak reading, measured in Celsius.

Shenzhen's June climate is characterised by early monsoon influence and rising summer heat. Historical records from the airport station show June highs typically range between 30 and 35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the YES outcome suggests either that the specific temperature range in question is genuinely unlikely based on seasonal norms, or that traders have not yet engaged substantively with this particular bracket. Comparable June days at the station provide a baseline: the airport's climate data stretches back decades, offering traders concrete reference points for what constitutes an outlier versus a typical early-summer day.

The primary catalyst affecting this market is the actual weather pattern that emerges in early June 2026. Tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea, shifts in the East Asian monsoon onset, and any anomalous high-pressure systems will determine whether temperatures track toward the cooler or warmer end of the seasonal range. Real-time meteorological forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration, typically issued five to ten days before the settlement date, will sharpen expectations as June approaches.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Shenzhen on June 7? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.