Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the Singapore Changi Airport Station will record its peak temperature for that day, a single real-world data point that determines whether a YES or NO share in this prediction market pays out. A YES share represents a bet that the highest temperature falls within a specific range defined by the market, while a NO share bets it does not; the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for YES suggests traders overwhelmingly believe the temperature will not match the market’s leading condition, likely 32°C, despite climatological norms.

Historical data frames this probability: July in Singapore typically sees daily highs around 31°C (88°F), rarely dipping below 30°C or exceeding 33°C, with the Meteorological Service Singapore projecting above-average temperatures but below-average rainfall through August due to the ongoing Southwest Monsoon[1][3][5]. While global records like July 2024’s warmth show extreme potential[2], Singapore’s local climate remains stable, and a 40-year peak of 37°C remains an outlier rather than a trend[8], making the 0% YES probability a reflection of expected consistency rather than surprise.

Traders should monitor the Southwest Monsoon’s intensity and any official weather advisories from the Meteorological Service Singapore, as shifts in rainfall or wind patterns could alter peak temperatures[1]. No immediate announcements are scheduled, but the monsoon’s progression through August is the key dependency; real-time updates from Wunderground will confirm the day’s highest reading, and any deviation from the 31–32°C range could trigger market movement[1][7]. The settlement window ends 12:00 UTC on 1 July 2026, locking in the final temperature for resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Singapore on July 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.