Highest temperature in Singapore on July 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 8 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at Singapore Changi Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the specified range, while a NO share pays out if it does not; traders buy these shares based on their assessment of the likelihood, with prices reflecting the crowd-implied probability.

Historically, July highs at Changi typically hover around 31–32°C, rarely dipping below 29°C or exceeding 34°C under the prevailing Southwest Monsoon [1][6]. The current 0% crowd-implied probability for the YES outcome suggests the market believes 31°C is unlikely, yet model consensus still points to a 29–32°C range, with 31°C holding the highest implied probability (36.5%) among competing temperature brackets [1][3]. This discrepancy highlights how short-range uncertainty and observational dependencies can shift sentiment rapidly as the settlement window nears.

Traders should monitor daily forecasts from AccuWeather and official METAR updates from the National Weather Service, which track cloud cover and shower activity that could suppress peak temperatures [4][5]. Recent forecasts indicate mostly cloudy conditions with a high of 88°F (31.1°C) on 8 July, alongside brief late showers that may limit heat accumulation [5][8]. Any sudden announcements regarding monsoon intensity or unseasonal rainfall from Singapore’s meteorological authority would act as key catalysts, potentially altering the temperature outcome before the 2026-07-08T12:00:00Z settlement deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.