Highest temperature in Taipei on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. A YES share pays out if the temperature falls within a specific range you selected; a NO share pays out if it falls outside that range. The market currently shows 0% probability for a YES outcome on any range, which is an unusual signal given that July is historically the hottest month at this station, with average highs near 33.9°C (92°F)[2].

Historical data frames this 0% probability as a likely market error rather than a genuine forecast of cool weather. In July 2025, temperatures at Songshan Airport reached typical summer highs, and the average high for mid-July is 33.9°C, with recorded extremes well above 30°C[7][8]. Other prediction markets on the same event assign a 37% chance to 36°C and 35% to 35°C, suggesting the 0% figure here may reflect a liquidity glitch or a mispriced initial listing rather than actual weather expectations[1].

Traders should watch the daily weather forecast from the Central Weather Administration and real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as the settlement window closes on 1 July at 12:00 UTC[4]. No specific weather announcements are scheduled for this date, but the forecast for 1 July predicts hot and humid conditions with temperatures reaching 95°F (35°C) and overcast skies, which aligns with the 35–36°C ranges favoured elsewhere[6]. The key dependency is the timely publication of the daily maximum temperature on Wunderground, which will resolve the market once the data is confirmed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.