Highest temperature in Taipei on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the specific range the market is betting on, while a NO share pays out if it does not. Here, the crowd currently implies a 0% chance for the YES outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not reach the threshold in question.

Historically, July is Taipei’s hottest month, with average highs at Songshan Airport reaching 33°C (92°F), and peaks often exceeding this during clear, humid spells [1][4]. For context, the highest temperature recorded in Taipei on 10 July 2026 was 33°C, indicating that temperatures in this range are typical for mid-July [3]. The current 0% probability may reflect an expectation that today’s weather—marked by heavy rain and typhoon activity—will suppress temperatures below the market’s threshold [2][10].

Traders should monitor hourly updates from the Central Weather Administration and Wunderground, the official resolution source, for real-time temperature readings [8][9]. Key catalysts include the duration and intensity of the typhoon affecting Taipei today, as sustained rain and cloud cover typically lower maximum temperatures [2]. With the settlement window ending on 12 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC, the final resolution will depend solely on the peak temperature recorded before that deadline, regardless of forecast shifts afterward.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Taipei on July 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.