Highest temperature in Taipei on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 12 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station, measured in degrees Celsius. A YES share in this market pays out if the temperature falls within the specific range selected by the trader; a NO share pays out if it falls outside that range. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders believe the chosen range is virtually impossible, yet historical data shows Taipei’s July highs cluster tightly between 34°C and 38°C, with 34°C being the market’s leading outcome at 37% probability [1].

Past July records at Taipei Songshan Airport confirm July is the hottest month, averaging a high of 92°F (33.3°C), while recent ensemble forecasts indicate genuine uncertainty in short-range predictions, keeping the likely maximum within the 34–38°C band [1][3]. This historical framing explains why a 0% probability for an extreme outlier range is rational: the climate consistently produces moderate-to-high summer temperatures rather than the extremes implied by the zero-priced option.

Traders should monitor hourly updates from the Central Weather Administration and real-time ensemble forecasts, as rain showers and cloud cover noted for Sunday 12 July could suppress peak temperatures [7][10]. The settlement relies exclusively on Wunderground’s daily history for RCSS, meaning any revision to recorded temperatures before the first datapoint for 13 July will alter the outcome [1]. No announcements are expected beyond standard meteorological bulletins, so the primary dependency remains the accuracy of the short-range forecast as the day progresses.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Taipei on July 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.