Highest temperature in Taipei on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 July 2026, traders are betting on the peak temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing the day’s highest reading. A YES share pays out if the actual temperature falls within the selected range; a NO share pays out if it falls outside. Currently, the crowd implies a 0% chance of the YES outcome, suggesting the market expects the temperature to land in a different bracket than the one offered.

Historically, July is Taipei’s hottest month, with average highs near 33°C and records reaching 39.7°C in 2020, the highest in 124 years [2][4]. The warmest low temperature on 13 July specifically was 32.0°C in 2014, indicating that even overnight warmth rarely dips below 30°C during midsummer [1]. This thermal baseline explains why the market assigns near-zero probability to lower ranges: extreme heat is typical, not exceptional, in Taipei’s July climate.

Traders should monitor real-time forecasts from Wunderground and the Central Weather Administration, as typhoon activity or sudden cloud cover could suppress peak temperatures [4][8]. Although no typhoon is currently expected before late July, thunderstorms this afternoon may temporarily lower readings [5]. The settlement depends solely on the official Wunderground record for Taipei Songshan Airport, so any discrepancy between forecast models and observed data will drive final resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.