Highest temperature in Taipei on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 6 July 2026, the real-world event at the heart of this market is the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station, measured in degrees Celsius. For those new to prediction markets, a YES share means you believe the outcome will fall within a specific temperature range, while a NO share means you believe it will not. In this case, the crowd currently assigns a 0% chance to the YES outcome, suggesting traders are confident the temperature will not hit the range being bet on.

Historical data frames how to interpret this probability. July is typically Taipei’s hottest month, with an average high of 92°F (33.3°C) at Songshan Airport, and past years have seen peaks reaching 35°C or higher [4]. On Polymarket, the frontrunner outcome is 35°C at 36%, with 36°C next at 33%, indicating the market expects a very hot day [1]. The 0% YES probability likely reflects a mismatch between the range being offered and these realistic expectations, not a belief that the day will be cool.

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, and watch for any sudden shifts in humidity, cloud cover, or wind patterns that could suppress peak temperatures [5]. Current conditions show 66% humidity and 91% cloud cover, which may limit heating [6]. There are no major scheduled announcements expected, but daily forecasts from Windfinder and the Central Weather Administration will provide the clearest signals as the day progresses [3][7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Taipei on July 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.