Highest temperature in Taipei on June 16?

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Market context

On 16 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station will fall within one of several defined ranges. A YES share in this market represents a bet that the temperature will land in a specific bracket—for instance, 32–34°C—whilst a NO share bets it will fall outside that range. The settlement source is Wunderground's historical weather database, which logs daily highs at the airport station, a standard meteorological observation point in Taiwan's capital.

Taipei's June climate is characterised by early-summer heat and increasing humidity as the monsoon season approaches. Historical data from the past decade shows daily highs in mid-June typically range between 30 and 35°C, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the YES outcome suggests traders are either awaiting clarification on which specific temperature range the market is asking about, or are treating this as a placeholder until the exact resolution brackets are published. Without visible temperature bands in the market description, participants cannot yet assess which outcome is most likely.

The key variable affecting June 16 temperatures will be the position and intensity of the Pacific high-pressure system and any tropical moisture influx from the southwest monsoon. Taiwan's Central Weather Administration issues seasonal forecasts and weekly outlooks that traders should monitor from early June onwards. Local news outlets and the CWA's official website typically publish extended forecasts two weeks in advance, providing the best early signal for whether conditions will favour above-average or near-normal temperatures for that specific date.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Taipei on June 16? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.