Highest temperature in Taipei on June 7?

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Market context

On 7 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in any given range means you believe the peak temperature that day will land within those bounds; a NO share means it will fall elsewhere. The settlement source is historical weather data from Weather Underground, which logs hourly readings at the airport station. The current crowd probability of 0% suggests no traders are yet confident in any single range, or the market has only recently opened.

Taipei's June weather is highly predictable within broad parameters. The city sits in a subtropical climate where early June temperatures typically peak between 28°C and 33°C, with occasional spikes above 35°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past decade shows that extreme outliers—temperatures below 25°C or above 37°C—occur in fewer than 5% of June days at Songshan Airport. This seasonal consistency means the most heavily traded ranges will likely cluster around the 30–34°C band, where climatological norms concentrate.

The key variable traders should monitor is the position of the Pacific high-pressure system and any tropical cyclone activity in early June 2026. The Taiwan Central Weather Administration issues forecasts 10–14 days ahead; traders should check these updates in late May for any signals of unusual heat or cooler-than-normal conditions. El Niño or La Niña patterns, if active, can shift seasonal baselines by 1–2°C. Additionally, any typhoon system approaching the region would suppress temperatures significantly, creating a material downside tail risk to the typical June range.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Taipei on June 7? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.