Highest temperature in Taipei on June 8?

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Market context

On 8 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Taipei Songshan Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. In prediction markets, traders buy YES or NO shares on whether an outcome will occur. A YES share pays out if the temperature lands in the specified bracket; a NO share pays out if it lands elsewhere. This market's settlement depends on historical weather data from Wunderground, making the resolution deterministic once the day passes and records are published.

Taipei's June climate sits firmly in the pre-monsoon transition period, with typical daily highs between 28°C and 32°C. Historical data from the past decade shows considerable variability: some years see peaks near 35°C during early heat waves, whilst others remain closer to 29°C under cloud cover and occasional rain. The current crowd probability of 0% for the YES outcome suggests traders expect the temperature to fall outside whichever range this particular market has defined. Without visibility on the specific temperature bracket being tested, this extreme skew likely reflects either a very high threshold (above 35°C) or a very low one (below 25°C), both of which are statistically uncommon for early June in Taipei.

Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather patterns and any emerging climate anomalies in May 2026. Taiwan's Central Weather Administration publishes monthly forecasts and real-time updates; significant El Niño or La Niña conditions could shift June temperatures materially. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 8 June, giving traders until morning in Taipei to adjust positions before the final temperature is locked in.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.