Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the highest air temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport on 10 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the temperature falls within the specific range the market defines, while a NO share wins if it falls outside that range. Here, the crowd-implied probability for YES is 0%, suggesting traders believe the temperature will not reach the threshold set for a winning outcome.

Historical data frames this near-zero probability clearly. July in Tokyo typically sees highs between 29°C and 35°C, with the rainy season often ending by early July but humidity remaining high [1][2]. Recent forecasts for Haneda show daily highs around 27°C to 32°C, well below extreme summer peaks [3][5]. Given that the average high for July is 87°F (30.6°C) and recent days have hovered near 30°C, the likelihood of an outlier spike exceeding the market’s range appears minimal based on comparable cases [3][9].

Traders should monitor the official Wunderground daily report for RJTT, which will settle the market, and watch for any sudden heatwave announcements from the Japan Meteorological Agency. While no extreme heat alerts have been issued recently, the dependency on a single data source means any discrepancy in the Wunderground feed could impact resolution [4]. With current conditions showing clear skies and moderate breezes, the immediate catalyst is the absence of a forecasted temperature surge, reinforcing the 0% YES probability [4][7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.