Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 14 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in any given temperature bracket means you believe the day's peak will land there; a NO share means it won't. The settlement source is historical weather data from Weather Underground, which archives daily highs by airport station. This market resolves once the calendar date passes and the official record is published.

Tokyo's July climate is consistently warm and humid, with historical highs typically between 32–36°C. Data from the past decade shows that mid-July peaks rarely exceed 37°C at Haneda, though heat waves have occasionally pushed readings toward 38–39°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting range options to be specified or treating this as a placeholder market. Without visible range brackets, participants cannot yet assess which temperature band is most likely, making current odds uninformative rather than bearish on any specific outcome.

The Japan Meteorological Agency issues seasonal forecasts and heat alerts in early July each year. Traders should monitor their June and early-July bulletins for El Niño or La Niña conditions, which influence Pacific summer temperatures. Additionally, any unusual atmospheric patterns—such as a stalled high-pressure system over the Kanto region—would be flagged in weather advisories weeks ahead. Once the market's temperature ranges are published, historical frequency distributions and seasonal anomaly forecasts will become the primary tools for calibrating position.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.