Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 16 July 2026, the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station will record its highest daily temperature in degrees Celsius, a single real-world data point that determines the outcome of this weather prediction market. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the selected outcome occurs, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the crowd currently assigns 0% probability to any specific YES outcome being correct, suggesting traders are either undecided or awaiting clearer signals before committing capital.

Historical mid-July temperatures in Tokyo typically range between 30°C and 36°C, with recent records showing extreme heatwaves pushing values higher. For instance, in late July 2025, Japan recorded its highest ever temperature of 41.1°C in Tamba, though that location lies over 500 kilometres southwest of Tokyo [2]. The current market frontrunner is 33°C at 41%, followed by 34°C at 30%, indicating traders expect moderate summer heat rather than record-breaking extremes for Haneda specifically [1].

Traders should monitor daily weather forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source for this market. Key catalysts include announcements of heatwave warnings, shifts in Pacific high-pressure systems, and any sudden changes in cloud cover or rainfall expected on 16 July. Since settlement ends at 12:00 UTC on the day itself, late-morning temperature spikes could rapidly alter implied probabilities as the window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.