Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market’s outcome is the highest temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the selected outcome occurs, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the crowd currently assigns 0% probability to any YES outcome, implying near-certainty that the temperature will fall outside the specific range being bet on.

Historical July highs in Tokyo typically range between 29°C and 35°C, with Haneda Airport often recording slightly lower peaks than central Tokyo due to its coastal location. Recent data for today forecasts temperatures between 27°C and 29°C with light rain, which aligns with the market’s 0% YES probability if the betted range is above 30°C [2]. Comparable cases from previous years show that unseasonal cool spells or rain can suppress highs below 30°C, making such outcomes plausible but currently dismissed by traders.

Traders should monitor hourly updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, and watch for any sudden shifts in weather patterns driven by regional cloud cover or precipitation. While no major announcements are scheduled, the light rain expected today could be a key catalyst, as moisture often limits daytime temperature spikes [2]. Continuous tracking of the Haneda Airport station data will be essential, as the market settles based on the single highest reading recorded at any time on 17 July.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 17? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.