Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 4 July 2026, the real-world event at Tokyo Haneda Airport will determine the highest temperature recorded in degrees Celsius, a single data point that resolves a prediction market. In these markets, a YES share pays out if the outcome matches the market’s condition, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the crowd currently implies a 0% chance of the temperature reaching the highest bracket, suggesting traders expect a moderate day.

Historical context frames this low probability: July in Tokyo typically sees highs between 26°C and 30°C, with recent years showing consistent warmth but no extreme spikes at Haneda. While Japan recorded its national high of 41.2°C in Tamba City in 2025, Haneda Airport has not approached such extremes, and Polymarket data for 3 July 2026 shows a frontrunner of 26°C, reinforcing that 27°C or higher is already seen as unlikely [1][2].

Traders should monitor daily weather forecasts from the National Weather Service and any heatwave advisories from the Japan Meteorological Agency, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns could alter temperatures. Recent flight information from JAL notes potential delays due to bad weather on 4 July, which may correlate with cooler conditions if rain or heavy clouds develop [9]. No announcements are expected to directly raise temperatures, so the market’s 0% stance reflects confidence in typical summer variability rather than a forecast of record heat.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 4? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.