Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 5 July 2026, the real-world event at Tokyo Haneda Airport will be the peak temperature recorded that day, measured in degrees Celsius. For newcomers to prediction markets, a YES share means you believe the highest temperature will fall within a specific range defined by the market, while a NO share means you expect it to be outside that range. This particular market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at any time on that day, sourced from Wunderground, with the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 5 July 2026.

Historical data frames the current 0% YES probability as unusually cautious. Mid-to-late July in Tokyo routinely sees highs between 36°C and 40°C, often with humidity exceeding 95%, creating a concrete jungle effect where heat lingers after sunset [4]. Japan has recorded its hottest July on record for three consecutive years, with nationwide averages nearly 3°C above normal and parts of Hokkaido hitting over 40°C [3]. In 2025, Japan set an all-time record of 41.2°C in Hyogo Prefecture, demonstrating that extreme heat is not just possible but increasingly common [5].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily forecasts and any special task force announcements regarding water conservation and crop measures, as these often precede or accompany extreme heat warnings [3]. The agency has warned that above-average temperatures are expected to continue into August, particularly outside southern regions like Okinawa [3]. Additionally, watch for real-time updates from Wunderground and local weather services, as clusters of severe thunderstorms can sometimes temporarily suppress peak temperatures, though the overall trend points to sustained heat [7]. Current forecasts for Haneda show daily highs ranging from 76°F to 91°F (approximately 24°C to 33°C), but this may not reflect the true peak if the heatwave intensifies [6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.