Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is the peak air temperature recorded on 6 July 2026 at Tokyo Haneda Airport, measured in degrees Celsius. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the outcome matches the selected condition, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the crowd currently assigns a 0% chance to the highest temperature being 19°C or below, implying traders expect significantly warmer conditions.

Historical and comparable data strongly frame this near-zero probability. July in Tokyo is consistently hot and humid, with daily highs typically reaching the low 30s Celsius, as noted by travel observers and monthly forecasts showing highs between 26°C and 33°C [7][8]. Current Met Office forecasts for the day predict a maximum of 27°C, while Polymarket traders place the leading outcome at 26°C with a 76% probability, making the 19°C-or-below scenario statistically implausible [1][3].

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, and watch for any sudden shifts in cloud cover or rainfall that could temporarily suppress temperatures. While no specific weather announcement is pending, the region’s characteristic humidity and frequent rain in July mean conditions can fluctuate rapidly [8]. The market’s settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 6 July, so the final reading will depend entirely on the highest temperature recorded at any time before that deadline [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.