Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 7 July 2026, the real-world event in question is the peak temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport, which will determine the outcome of a prediction market where traders buy YES or NO shares. A YES share pays out if the highest temperature falls within a specific range, while a NO share wins if it lands outside that range. Currently, the market assigns a 0% probability to the YES outcome for the implied range, suggesting traders believe the temperature will exceed that threshold.

Historical data frames this low probability clearly: mid-to-late July in Tokyo routinely sees highs between 36°C and 40°C, with humidity turning the city into a concrete jungle, as noted by travellers on Reddit[2]. Japan’s all-time record of 41.2°C was set in Hyogo Prefecture in late July 2025, confirming that extreme heat is a recurring feature of the season rather than an anomaly[4]. Given these comparable cases, a 0% chance for a lower temperature range aligns with the typical intensity of Tokyo’s summer weather.

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s daily forecasts and any announcements regarding heatwaves or urban cooling initiatives ahead of the settlement date. While no specific announcement has been made for 7 July yet, the agency’s recent record-breaking report highlights the volatility of temperature trends in the region[4]. Additionally, checking real-time data from Wunderground for Haneda Airport will provide the most accurate precursor to the final resolution, as current monthly forecasts already suggest daily highs reaching up to 33°C (91°F) in July 2026[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 7? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.