Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 9 July 2026, the real-world event at Tokyo Haneda Airport will determine the highest temperature recorded in degrees Celsius, settling a prediction market where a YES share bets the temperature falls within a specific range and a NO share bets it does not. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders believe the outcome will not match the selected range, likely due to the extreme heat already dominating Japan’s summer. Historical data shows July highs in Tokyo typically reach 29°C, with Haneda’s maximum daytime temperature often hitting 31°C, while recent records confirm Tokyo reached 36.8°C on 1 July, marking a ninth consecutive day above 35°C[4].

Traders should monitor the Japan Meteorological Agency’s forecasts for Hokuriku from 9 July, as above-normal temperatures are expected to spread across regions, potentially pushing Haneda’s peak higher[4]. The resolution depends entirely on Wunderground’s daily high for all times on that date, making real-time weather updates critical. With July 2026 forecasts showing daily highs between 26°C and 33°C (76°F–91°F) at Haneda, any sudden spike could shift probabilities dramatically[6]. The market’s 0% YES stance reflects confidence that the temperature will exceed the selected range, given the record-breaking heatwave already underway.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.